As I sit down to write, there are reports of more than 3.68 lakh fresh corona cases in India in the last 24 hours and 10 states account for 73.78% of the new cases registered. This is likely to slow down India’s economic recovery, but the overall impact will be milder in comparison to last year’s devastation. Experts say that the extent of economic loss during the second wave will primarily depend on how fast the chain of infections can be broken. Although most economists indicate that the impact of the second wave on the economy will not be as harsh as last year, there are several risks that can derail the economy. Some of them are rising income inequality, unemployment, sectoral impact, consumer confidence and inflation.

According to a research conducted by Hong Kong-based brokerage firm CLSA, the second wave of corona virus is likely to peak only in June. The prediction is based on an analysis of 12 countries including the US, Brazil, and the UK which faced a strong resurgence of Covid-19. CLSA found that the second waves in these countries peaked when incremental cases had hit the median of 2% of the population.

Local-level restrictions reasons for economic stress 

Several indicators show that India’s economy is already feeling the stress of the ongoing deadly pandemic wave. While some of this impact is due to local-level restrictions that some state governments have imposed, others are because citizens are choosing to stay indoors. As per Apple’s driving index, which is compiled monthly on the basis of the number of requests made on Apple Maps for directions, Indians across major cities are commuting far lesser in April than in the previous three months.

The stress level even among the people who are not infected is on the rise. Everywhere there are daily health anxieties, deaths, increasing unemployment, isolation resulting in feelings of frustration and anger. While there is stress, people adopted various strategies to cope with the effects of the pandemic. In every market, consumers are the drivers of the market competitiveness, growth and economic integration. With economic instability, consumers are also experiencing a transformation in behaviour, though how much of transformation experienced during the crisis will sustain is a question.  The most important factors which model the consumer’s behaviour in crisis are risk attitude and risk perception. Risk attitude reflects consumer’s interpretation concerning the risk content and how much he or she dislikes the content of that risk. 

Online Shopping takes over the stage

In a matter of days there is a high level of dexterity and comfort in online shopping across the board. it is possible that people will reconsider venturing into public domains such as shopping malls and movie theatres with the same carefree and reckless gusto as before.  Consumer behavior is influenced deeply by cultural factors. We are a social community with a high need for group activities – travel, tourism, shopping, religion, and entertainment. However Covid lockdowns have changed our mindsets and it’s a safety first approach. Also economists are worried that the cost due to the ongoing public health crisis can be one of the reasons behind the sharp rise in inflation shrinking the pockets of the consumers.  

During the pandemic, people are spending less of their income on items perceived as nice-to-have or non-essential (such as clothing, shoes, make-up, jewellery, games and electronics). Globally too, during COVID-19, the developed nations are shifting towards steady state purchasing post-stock piling. Lower-income and younger consumers show a higher propensity to plan to reduce their spending, while older and higher-income groups exhibit more resilience. 

The hospitality, tourism and entertainment sectors have been hit hard during the second wave. Pressure is mounting on other sectors like consumer durables, aviation and real estate as well. Most of these sectors have seen a reduction in business activity as consumer confidence has taken a knock due to the second wave. People are worried about their savings, jobs and health as the second wave rages on. Experts said that weak consumer confidence can hurt India’s economy as reluctance to spend on discretionary items could lower demand.

Evolving market for Consumers 

The COVID -19 pandemic has fundamentally changed the world as we know it. People are living differently, buying differently and, in many ways, thinking differently. Supply chains have been tested . Retailers are closing doors. Consumers across the globe are looking at products and brands through a new lens. New habits formed now will endure beyond this crisis, permanently changing what we value; how and where we shop; and how we live and work. So consumers of all strata, across regions and states, beyond income levels are looking confused. The evolving market place is creating more puzzles than solutions as life and death are bigger priorities for consumers. Survive today for maybe a better tomorrow sees the consumers withdrawing their hands from their pocket. So practically, consumers are living a day to day life amidst chaos, confusion, hospitalization, deaths and hanging on the footboard with a sense of hapless feelings.

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Light of Hope for Consumers

As we begin 2019—a year that already portends to be among the most tumultuous in memory— I certainly welcome “the coming of hope for consumers, rich or poor.”

After all, at Consumer Voice, we are in the business of hope – for better future of consumers across the globe and especially in India. Our hope for our communities of consumers and our world is the work we do each and every day for consumer protection even when they buy a matchbox or a pen.  Make no mistake, that the exploitation of our democratic-capitalist system is intentional. Too often, the powerful and privileged corporate houses have intentions of harming consumers’ privileges for petty profit motives and maximize it for their own gain. We must prevent this at all cost.

At the same time, we must set our hope in relief against the realities of a world that feels on edge and off kilter, more precarious and less predictable. The reason for all of this, in my view, should not come as a surprise: Our political and economic system continues to produce and perpetuate staggering inequalities of all kinds and consumers in most cases are at the receiving end.  And although this is our society’s truth as a developing nation, it—like all truth—is under constant assault by organizations like Consumer Voice.
 
Consumer organizations need to engage in repairing the very mechanisms that produce, preserve, and promote consumers’ privileges. I believe we must practice a better vision of advocacy, one that improves itself and the societies / communities of which we are members thru a group chain of like- minded community fellows across India. As buyers, we should not distinguish between poor and the rich. Undue enrichment of the producers and sellers should be curtailed. 
 
In this way, for all of us, the road map for 2019 is clear. Given the progress we’ve made, and the work ahead, we cannot turn back now and leave our consumers in a lurch. We must redouble our efforts and forge forward, boldly, courageously and joyfully celebrate the victory of consumers against all odds. We have to dedicate ourselves to a more intense battle and consumers got to have faith in our interventions, efforts, advocacy and balancing the market. A task that will always remain unfulfilled but progress has to be made with dedication and commitments.

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Is Artificial Intelligence a friend or foe?

I remember the first day when my son brought home his dream robot assistant Alexa. In fact it was a parting gift from his former company. Being an engineer he sat for a week to set the backend coding of Alexa to suit his requirements. Lo and behold, everything in his room was controlled by Alexa on his command- lights, fans, taps, coffee maker, music, news etc. This was astounding for us and he was proud !

But the point is, are we ready for artificial intelligence (AI)?  Is Artificial Intelligence (AI) a friend or foe? To me it looked like a very disturbing convenience attachment and as AI becomes increasingly embedded in our society, it will change how we work and live. If we look around, much like this, artificial intelligence, machine learning (AI, ML) and robotics technologies are silently but increasingly automating work tasks. Some of it is already in use.

Email comes with filters and smart replies; maps and ride sharing apps use AI in route planning and pricing; online retailers use AI to understand your preferences and buying habits so they personalize your shopping experience. Music streaming sites provide AI-curated personalized playlists, and the 24-hour customer helpdesks to motor navigations, ticketing for any purpose is backend algorithm based and so on. The entire E commerce industry is totally dependent on AI platforms except the last mile delivery.

There is no doubt AI will transform society but there is a big need to safeguard against improper use. Putting fears to rest tech guru Sebastian Thrun, CEO, Kitty Hawk Corp and co-founder Udacity said, “AI is not made to replace people, but augment people. Much like mobile phones have done for us”. Most people, fearing job losses to AI and machines will be quick to say AI is the enemy, something to worry about as it will take away jobs and machines will take over the world. Sure, AI will make us efficient, but fears of job losses are genuine. It will surely replace maybe menial jobs but produce many more for the tech field. Very much like what computers or mobiles did.

Besides the productivity and efficiency advantages, AI brings in, there is also the moral dimension of machines smart enough to make decisions. Machine learning algorithms are building personality profiles on every human being. AI algorithms can learn your behavior, and before you know it, they know you better than you know yourself. This is a dominant player in disruptive technology.

In a developing country like India, most people, fearing job losses to AI and machines will be quick to say AI is the enemy, something to worry about as it will take away jobs and machines will take over the world. AI is picking up patterns—be it driving cars, detecting cancers or selling products – and helping novices get better, reemphasizes Thrun. In one of India’s mega event of spiritual gathering in Prayag, Uttar Pradesh which ends on 21^st March after a month, a million visitors a day and over half a million staying it was clear that AI has played an important role in maintaining security, discipline, admin efficiency, peace and threat perceptions. But obviously AI driven drones are omnipresent.

All this is surely a subject of a much larger debate where on one hand AI is much needed for progress and on the other side it can play havoc if in wrong hands! In any case it’s now time to get adjusted to this disruptive game changer.

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It’s time for consumers to wake up from their deep slumber!

Arise and awake consumers ! Something we all have been hearing since the last 3 decades or more! This is true for most of the developing nations where the businesses rule the markets and we often hear about consumers being duped either by fly by night operators or by known corporate houses. This is also true in a country like India where in 1986 the Consumer Protection Bill was passed. Kudos to those who could envisage the need for consumer protection in a then “controlled economy”.

We have come a long way since then. Markets have opened up, world class products are being offered, MNCs setting up offices in India, E commerce platforms making waves, and large multi brand retails have set up businesses in India. The missing element in all these developments is involvement and participation of consumers to make the market place a balanced playing field. Proactive and reactive consumer actions have seen globally markets evolve into a “need based” respected zone where both the businesses and consumers realize that we need each other.

Alas, the Indian markets have been subjected to cruel consumer sufferings with little respite even from known brands. The dual and deceptive policies the corporate houses have for the Indian markets are obvious and omnipresent. One prime cause is sleeping consumers who don’t even want to understand their rights under the constitution bolstered by CPA of 1986. One argument is that it’s a poor man’s economy but this can’t hold water under current economic conditions with a rising middle class and young buyers. This is the very reason that world brands and corporate houses are making a beeline to India.

So the need of the hour is to set up mechanisms that work to punish the market culprits. Very obviously this is the government’s job as by merely awakening consumers one is flooding the consumer and civil courts with no respite for years. The much awaited Consumer Protection Amendment draft Bill 2018 which is languishing in the parliament provides some ready answers as a carefully thought out regulation. But obviously it would need a push by asserting consumers who express their disappointment with the delay and press hard for its immediate passage once the new government is formed.

Consumer Voice has petitioned for its early passage and consumers can participate in urging the government for attention. Through the given link one can add to the growing number of consumers who can be catalyst for this major development. Urging all to sign the petition, so that consumers can’t be overlooked or defrauded in the market place. Add your muscle to the movement.

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Is India ready for E-commerce?

Driven by the rising smart phone penetration, the launch of 4G networks and increasing consumer wealth, the Indian e-commerce market is expected to grow in leaps and bounds in the near future. But is India e-commerce ready?

Ecommerce can change the economies of the developing nations like India. It can integrate Indian markets to the global market which in turn improves and strengthens the economic growth. However, Ecommerce in India is in its early stages and there are also major challenges that can hold back its growth despite this being the area of stupendous growth as often quoted. In fact it is still at a nascent stage with neither the market being stable nor the policies or regulations in place.

Ecommerce as a way of doing business is a new concept for Indian families. People usually buy and sell on face-to-face basis. Indians want to feel and see the product that they want, negotiate on best deals face to face, and buy. This is the type of business activity we are familiar with, which is entirely different from online way of doing it. The idea of buying goods and services virtually is not the type of risk Indians are ready to accept easily. They are also not confident whether online merchants are trust worthy enough to deliver products and services as promised. This process of slow acceptance through small trials with “Payment on Delivery” as a unique method has taken a huge toll in its natural fast growth.
On the other hand, merchants as well are afraid to sell their products over the Internet. Considering the lack of online buying habits of the society, and because of the reason that electronic way of doing business is not well-known, they think it is a high business risk to take. They usually are not willing to invest on online ventures. Thus both these hamper the growth of Ecommerce in India. Basically, “trust” is a major issue in online business environment and because there are no Ecommerce policies and laws in India both sellers and buyers have absolutely nowhere to go in case of disputes.

Ecommerce also requires a strong technological foundation. One of the major ones is access to the Internet. To run an online business one needs an Internet connection with stable and high connection speed. However, mostly the Internet connection is very limited and slow. Besides, the cost of possessing it is high. Another major technological facility Ecommerce needs is personal computers. Possessing computers is expensive which is another major challenge for the growth of Ecommerce. Banking is another major facility needed to do Ecommerce. And in most cases, lack of this major facility is a big barrier both for the seller and the buyer. Ecommerce can survive only if online payment systems are used as a mode of payment and not COD which is not cost effective.

Most importantly, to do Ecommerce, perfect legal system and policy is required. This is a basic requirement which gives space to both buyers and sellers. Without them it is impossible to do online business. However, India still has a long way to go before it has all the systems in place. Though the growth of Ecommerce has been at a fast pace, the government has not acted fast as a facilitator and left this vacuum of Ecommerce policy framework.

The perfect co-operation of government, professionals, online merchants, banks and customers is a must to see an Ecommerce boom through trust and faith. If they can work together and collaborate, they can fully avoid all the above mentioned obstacles and can benefit the nation from the outputs of Ecommerce economy.

For other articles by Consumer VOICE COO’s Desk, click here